New data from trade association BOS and operator ATG point to a divided gambling landscape in Sweden: long-term declines in problem gambling despite an explosion in online availability, but persistent leakage of players to offshore casinos that threatens public-health goals and regulatory credibility.
New figures presented this month by the Swedish online gambling association BOS suggest that problem gambling in Sweden has been declining over the past decade, even as gambling has become dramatically more accessible. The data, drawn from the national Swelogs surveys and summarised in a report by Makrologik, show that the share of the population classified as problem gamblers (PGSI 3+) has fallen from 2.2% in 2008/2009 to 1.3% in 2021. The number of people affected has dropped by an estimated 57,000 over the same period, according to the analysis in the report.
At a BOS seminar, secretary general Gustaf Hoffstedt described the findings as counterintuitive. “It is, at least for me, a surprising picture that is drawn here of problem gambling in Sweden. I believe that most people have instead had the image that problem gambling is increasing,” he said in the association’s press release. He cautioned, however, that “that problem gambling is decreasing does not mean that it will continue to decrease without active interventions. There are still thousands of Swedes who suffer from gambling problems, and often relatives who are also affected.”
The Makrologik report underscores the paradox. Page after page documents the extraordinary expansion of Sweden’s online gambling environment: advertising spending rising roughly 400% between 2009 and 2018, a more than eleven-fold increase in the number of online casino games between 2004 and 2019, and the shift to near-universal internet and smartphone access. The report concludes that “problem gambling has decreased… while advertising investments, gambling supply and accessibility have increased sharply.”
The report also finds “no clear effect of the re-regulation of the market” in 2019 on problem gambling trends.
The new BOS data arrive amid a deepening rift in Sweden’s gambling sector. Horse-racing operator ATG and state-owned Svenska Spel argue that tougher restrictions, including a full ban on bonuses, are necessary to protect consumers. BOS counters that such measures risk accelerating the movement of players to unlicensed operators.
In an interview with SiGMA News earlier this month, Hoffstedt said that players were “to such a large extent absent from the legally licensed part of the gambling market” and that many had instead chosen “the unregulated, unlicensed market to an alarming extent, partly because of the very generous bonus systems offered there.” He argued that banning all bonuses would amount to “giving up the fight of defending the licensed gambling market and its consumer protection.”
ATG’s latest quarterly channelisation report, released on 25 November, indeed paints a fragile picture of the regulated market. The company estimates the Q3 2025 channelisation rate, the share of gambling taking place with licensed operators, at 74–85%, up from 70–82% a year earlier. “It is gratifying to see a positive trend. The work against unlicensed actors is beginning to have an effect,” ATG’s CEO, Hasse Lord Skarplöth, said in the press release.
But the same report stresses that offshore gambling remains extensive. “Despite the improved channelisation rate,” ATG writes, “the amount of gambling on unlicensed sites is still significant.” The report warns that the unlicensed market is estimated at SEK 3.5–6.9 billion annually, equal to SEK 60–120 billion in gross turnover.
According to the traffic analysis in the report, “visitor traffic from Sweden to the unlicensed companies has increased tenfold since 2019”. Eight of the 20 most-visited sites in Q3 offered direct deposits and withdrawals from Swedish bank accounts via BankID, and several used the same platform providers as licensed firms, blurring the boundary between regulated and unregulated play.
The Swedish government is now preparing a major reform of the Gambling Act, expected no earlier than 2027, which would make it illegal to provide gambling without a licence. ATG says such measures are necessary to close loopholes and protect consumers. BOS also supports parts of the reform, including the shift from the “direction criterion” to a “participation criterion,” which would allow enforcement whenever a Swedish resident plays on an unlicensed site.
But disagreements remain on the direction of consumer-protection policy. Svenska Spel argues that “all forms of gambling are not equally dangerous” and that online casino games “are strongly linked to indebtedness and problem gambling.” BOS, citing its new analysis of Swelogs’ data, responds that, counterintuitively, lotteries remain the product most commonly used by problem gamblers, a reminder, Hoffstedt says, that assumptions about risk must be evidence-driven.
With Sweden still far from its 90% channelisation target and with both supply and offshore competition continuing to expand, the policy choices made now will determine whether the regulated market can regain ground, or whether the gulf between harm trends and market trends continues to widen.
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